This undergraduate course, taught by Professor Steve Keen, delves into the fascinating field of Behavioral Finance, which combines market analysis with insights from cognitive and behavioral psychology.
The course covers various topics, including:
Students will gain a comprehensive understanding of how cognitive biases influence financial decisions and the overall functioning of financial markets.
This introductory module sets the stage for understanding consumer behavior through the Neoclassical theory known as Revealed Preference. Professor Keen discusses a pivotal experiment conducted by Reinhard Sippel that challenges the Neoclassical view of rationality. By analyzing consumer choices and preferences, students will learn about the limitations of traditional economic models.
In this continuation of the previous lecture, Professor Keen delves into Sippel's findings which reveal that many individuals do not conform to the Neoclassical definition of rational behavior. The lecture discusses the computational complexity of achieving "rationality" and introduces the concept that market demand curves can take various forms, disputing the "Law of Demand" in traditional economics.
This lecture critiques the Neoclassical model of consumer behavior, emphasizing its computational impossibility. Professor Keen discusses the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu conditions, highlighting how market demand cannot be simplified to a single utility-maximizing individual. This challenges the validity of traditional economic models that aggregate individual demands.
In this module, Professor Keen continues to challenge the validity of traditional supply and demand analysis. He discusses that even if a downward-sloping demand curve exists, the traditional methods for analyzing supply cannot be effectively separated from demand. This lecture covers critical points regarding profit maximization and the interdependence of supply and demand curves.
This lecture critiques the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), asserting that they rest on flawed assumptions about market stability. Professor Keen introduces an alternative viewpoint suggesting that financial markets are chaotic and far from equilibrium, which complicates the notion of "beating the market."
This module continues the critique of CAPM and EMH by examining Eugene Fama's role in promoting these theories. Professor Keen discusses Fama's retrospective disavowal of the theories, questioning the empirical success that had been claimed. This lecture highlights the discrepancies between theory and empirical data in finance.
In this first half of the lecture on Fractal Finance Markets, Professor Keen introduces the Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Inefficient Markets Hypothesis. He explains the concept of fractals and their relevance to finance, discussing how these theories provide a more realistic understanding of market behavior compared to traditional models.
In the second half of the lecture, Professor Keen outlines actionable investment strategies derived from the Fractal Markets Hypothesis. He contrasts these strategies with those suggested by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, advocating for investment in low volatility and high Book to Market stocks as a means to improve returns in the stock market.
This module addresses the state of macroeconomics one year after the onset of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Professor Keen critiques the prevailing belief in macroeconomic stability and discusses the role of misguided scholarship in shaping current theories. He highlights insights from economists like John Hicks and Robert Solow.
In this module, Professor Keen presents a critical analysis of empirical studies conducted by Kydland and Prescott, two economists known for developing Real Business Cycle theory. He discusses their findings regarding the role of credit in the business cycle and emphasizes the need for a new approach in economic analysis that considers endogenous money.
This lecture introduces the concept of endogenous money, emphasizing its empirical validity. Professor Keen discusses foundational disputes in the development of the concept and explains Graziani's Monetary Circuit model, which serves as a basis for understanding the dynamics of a monetary system within capitalism.
Continuing from the previous lecture, Professor Keen critiques the errors made by the Circuitists in modeling the Monetary Circuit. He highlights the importance of dynamic modeling and introduces differential equations as a tool for developing a more accurate monetary model, addressing how these models can better reflect economic processes.
In this first half of the lecture on Monetary Circuit Theory, Professor Keen discusses the historical context and foundational concepts that shape this theory. He elucidates the dilemmas faced by Circuit Theory and how misunderstandings in dynamic modeling reflect broader issues within economics, emphasizing the need for a shift in thinking among economists.
This module builds upon the earlier discussion of Monetary Circuit Theory, focusing on the incorporation of wage payments and consumption into the model. Professor Keen demonstrates the model's functionality, illustrating how capitalists can borrow money, produce goods, and generate profit within this framework.
Continuing with the development of the QED model of a pure credit economy, this module examines production and pricing equations. Professor Keen explains the fixed variables in the model while introducing Bill Phillips' contributions, emphasizing the transition to modern economic modeling and the need for dynamic approaches.
This lecture uses the developed QED model to illustrate that money is not neutral in a credit-based economy. Professor Keen models the impact of money creation on unemployment and discusses government policies to counteract credit crunches, comparing the effectiveness of different approaches to economic intervention.
In this module, Professor Keen discusses the influences behind Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. He explores the contributions of notable economists such as Marx, Fisher, Schumpeter, and Keynes, setting the stage for an in-depth examination of Minsky's theory on financial instability and its implications for economic understanding.
Continuing from the previous discussion, this module presents the mathematical model developed for Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. Professor Keen explains how this model is built upon Richard Goodwin's Growth Cycle model and articulates the dynamics of financial instability within the broader economic context.
In this concluding lecture of the course, Professor Keen reflects on the global economic crisis and the failure of many neoclassical economists to predict it. He analyzes the reasons behind this oversight, particularly their disregard for private debt and belief in economic equilibrium, and compares this crisis with the Great Depression, presenting his monetary macroeconomic model as a solution.
This module discusses the development of Expected Utility Theory by John von Neumann as a response to traditional indifference curve analysis. Professor Keen explains how economists merged these concepts with unrealistic assumptions about individual behaviors in asset markets, leading to the creation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which has faced significant scrutiny over time.
This module dives deep into the complexities of financial markets and the behavior of investors. It challenges the conventional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which was initially supported due to its statistical alignment with historical data. However, this alignment may have been coincidental due to the limited time frame analyzed. The module further explores:
Students will gain insights into the ongoing debates in financial theory and the implications of these theories in real-world decision-making.