Infectious Disease Modelling

Developing the SIR Model module introduces participants to valid mathematical models capturing the natural history of infectious diseases. Learners will interpret compartmental models, describe fundamental processes driving the dynamics of an SIR epidemic, and develop a simple SIR model. The focus is on understanding mechanisms of susceptibility and incorporating them into the model under given parameters.

The Interventions and Calibration module delves into the relationship between models and real-world epidemiological data. Participants will learn to incorporate treatment or vaccination into an SIR model, perform model calibrations against time-series data, and recognize different approaches to model calibration in R. The module emphasizes understanding the impact of interventions on disease dynamics and optimizing model parameters to fit the data.

Building on the SIR Model module explores stochastic and deterministic models, population structure, and the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Participants will distinguish between stochastic and deterministic models, design and simulate transmission models capturing population structure, and evaluate the assumptions behind the Ross MacDonald model. The module aims to equip learners with the skills to critically evaluate modelling studies and communicate their findings effectively to a scientifically literate audience.